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SSA - Singular Spectrum Analisys

Updated: Nov 18, 2019

We have some data. Our goal for today would be to find the cyclical pattern that the data presents.

Unfortunately, the number of `conversions` happen irregularly (we're not seeing each hour roughly the same amount of conversions). At the same time though, the `conversions` we're seeing have a clear pattern, one of which we've identified by looking at the charts is the day/night pattern. This makes sense: people usually buy during the day and not that often at night.

Obviously day / night is not the only pattern, there are potentially more, which look when summed up like complex looking shapes.

Our problem is identifying all these patterns, for:

  • tailoring our marketing campaing by spending more on the intervals with high conversion rate, and stop the campaing on the slughish intervals.

  • understand the main `conversion` driving factors for our clients (holidays, vacation periods, etc..?)

  • understand our clients. We've assumed day / night is a pattern but the cycles for days don't line up with our local time. This may be because:

our customers come from a different part of the world
it's not a day / night but a after-hours / morning-hours one

I hope I've convinced you that exactly knowing the characteristics of the patterns in our data is of great help.

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